roadmap: institutionalization & recidivism are ours, on our own axis

Corrected an over-correction. In a suite named Institution these are the
namesake, and our substrate builds them on an axis Prisoner Realism has no engine
for, so it is complementary, not a rebuild:

- Institutionalization -> prisonization, and NOT a new system: the existing
  Propensity.Nurture reads the existing CriminalRecord.reform field (signed:
  harsh regime prisonizes, rehabilitative reforms). One field, additive. When PR
  is present we soft-read its hediff as one more input -- no patch, no dependency.
- Recidivism -> we own the reintegrated who STAY and reoffend inside the colony
  (wiring gap D); PR owns the departed who return as raiders. Different
  population, no overlap.

Also records the governing constraint "defer the depth, never the payoff": the
propensity -> contraband -> detection spine is fully ours and self-complete; only
the response side (Discipline, Parole) needs its own minimal effect so nothing
dangles when PR is absent.

ROADMAP.md

@@ -72,6 +72,18 @@ afterthoughts.
 A/B/C are load-bearing; D rounds it out. These are the *wiring*; everything in the module table
 below is the *features* that hang off it.
 
+**Design constraint (2026-07-15): defer the depth, never the payoff.** The propensity → contraband
+→ detection → record *spine* is entirely ours and is self-complete without any third-party mod — it
+is what the suite is *about*, and deferring PR's prisoner-behaviour sims (recidivism, riot,
+solitary-toll, institutionalization, mood-contagion) leaves no hole in it, because none of those sit
+*on* that spine. The one place the deferral could ring hollow solo is the RESPONSE side: Discipline
+and Parole. So each response action must carry its **own minimal self-complete effect** — parole
+gives an immediate faction-goodwill / relationship nudge; discipline revokes privileges with a
+modest mood/record consequence — rather than borrowing PR's deeper toll. That is *not* a rebuild of
+PR (no returning raiders, no 3-tier solitary): it is our own decision having an immediate payoff,
+which PR then *enriches* when present. The test of a healthy deferral: with PR absent the loop still
+*closes* (the decision has an effect); with PR present the effect gets *deeper*, never doubled.
+
 ## Suite modules
 
 | Mod | Scope | Status |
@@ -227,14 +239,18 @@ and classification (segregate rivals). The richest, latest module — build afte
 2. **Regime** — schedule (vanilla Restrict) + one or two modest needs. Cheap, high-value, and it
    feeds the disposition engine (neglect → crime).
 3. **Visitation** — greenfield, thematically strong for the ward, doubles as a contraband route.
-4. **Parole / discharge / manumission** — the *release decision*, ideology-driven (the return
-   outcome is Prisoner Realism's Recidivism, not ours). Gives Ward and good behaviour a payoff.
+4. **Parole / discharge / manumission** — the *release decision*, ideology-driven, PLUS its
+   substrate-native payoffs: **prisonization** (the regime reshapes propensity over the sentence) and
+   **reintegrated-reoffending** (a parolee who joins the colony carries their record and may reoffend).
+   PR's departed-raider return layers on top when present. Gives Ward and good behaviour a real payoff.
 5. **Classification** (a router that reads the record + propensity and assigns a tier), then
    **punishment-orders**, then **corruption**.
 6. **Gangs** as contraband economies — last; needs the rest in place.
 
-Cut on 2026-07-15 (Prisoner Realism owns them, and it is good): reintegration/recidivism, the
-isolation toll, mood-contagion gangs. We coexist with all three; we rebuild none.
+Deferred to Prisoner Realism on 2026-07-15 (it owns them, and it is good), as MECHANICS we do not
+rebuild: the isolation toll, mood-contagion gangs, and the departed-prisoner return. We still own the
+substrate-native, differently-axised versions of institutionalization (prisonization) and recidivism
+(reintegrated-reoffending) — the namesake themes — because only our propensity/record engine can.
 
 Already in flight (Contraband/Foul Play): hooch, improvised weapons, fire-starter, escape tools,
 intake search, secure areas. See [Contraband ROADMAP](https://git.onetick.ninja/flan/rimworld-contraband).
@@ -292,13 +308,13 @@ What this changes vs. a naive "defer to whoever got there first":
 - **Recreation is ours to enable.** Prisoner Recreation (38k) and Prisoner Realism (11k) ship no
   custom need — they just flip on the *vanilla Joy need* for prisoners. We do the same in our
   needs system: idempotent, coexists, zero dependency, no citing.
-- **Release-outcome / recidivism → DEFER ENTIRELY to Prisoner Realism.** (Revised after the
-  2026-07-15 deep scan below.) PR's Recidivism is a genuinely good, complete sim — a released or
-  escaped prisoner returns much later as a grateful ally or a vengeful raider, scaled by how they
-  were treated. Rebuilding even a "modest" version would duplicate good work. Our Parole module's
-  *crucial loop* is the **release decision itself** (ideology-driven), and that is self-complete: a
-  released pawn simply leaves (vanilla). The *return outcome* is not our loop to close — it lights
-  up for free when PR is present and is simply absent otherwise. No dependency, nothing rebuilt.
+- **Recidivism → split by population, don't defer wholesale.** (Revised twice: first "build modest",
+  then "defer entirely", now corrected — see the namesake correction in the deep scan below.) PR's
+  Recidivism handles the pawns who **leave** (released/escaped → return ally-or-raider by treatment);
+  that is good and we do not rebuild it. We own the **mirror**: the paroled pawn who **stays**, joins
+  the colony, and can reoffend inside it (their `CriminalRecord` + residual propensity → wiring gap D).
+  Different population, no overlap. The release *decision* stays self-complete (ideology-driven);
+  the *reintegrated-reoffending* is ours; the *departed-return* is PR's.
 - **Solitary / isolation toll → DEFER to Prisoner Realism.** PR's Solitary is a full 3-tier
   deterioration hediff with a Ringleader counterplay. Our Classification module does NOT
   reimplement the toll; it is a **router** — it reads the shared record + propensity and *assigns*
@@ -326,8 +342,8 @@ and cut our overlaps. Its 20 features and our verdicts:
 | PrisonBreak rework | MTB scaled by mood/relation/captor/strength | Defer. Our arming rides vanilla/PR breaks. |
 | No-mining / melee breakout | strips sapper-dig; escapees bash doors | Defer. Our wall-cut is a *tool* route, additive. |
 | Keys / Lockpick | skilled prisoner picks a DOOR, fast, no item | Defer. We own file-through-a-WALL for non-break pawns. |
-| Recidivism | released/escaped return ally-or-raider by treatment | **Defer entirely.** Was on our list; dropped. |
-| Institutionalized | expectation decay + reintegration struggle | Defer. Kills our "reintegration" build. |
+| Recidivism | released/escaped return ally-or-raider by treatment | Defer PR's mechanic; own the MIRROR — the reintegrated who STAY and reoffend (see below). |
+| Institutionalized | expectation/mood decay + reintegration struggle | Defer the mood axis; own the PROPENSITY axis — prisonization (see below). |
 | Solitary | 3-tier isolation deterioration | Defer the toll; Classification only *routes* to it. |
 | Ringleader | mood contagion from dominant prisoner | Defer. Re-scopes our Gangs to contraband-networks. |
 | Riot | securely-caged-but-miserable → lash out | Defer. |
@@ -335,10 +351,34 @@ and cut our overlaps. Its 20 features and our verdicts:
 | Recreation | flips on vanilla Joy for prisoners | We enable the same idempotently (no citing). |
 | Surrender, ForceFeed, RecruitOffer, Despair, Turrets, Cleaning, Carry, BedOwner, Surgery, Commons, AssistedBreak | assorted prisoner-behavior sims | Defer all; coexist. |
 
-Net effect: **one planned module deleted** (reintegration+recidivism), **two re-scoped** (Classification
-→ pure router; Gangs → contraband economy, not mood). What remains is Institution's uncontested core:
-hidden-contraband + search, propensity across *all* pawns, Ward, Foul Play, classification-as-router,
-and the standout nobody touches — **policing free colonists** (the crime loop turned on your own colony).
+Net effect: **two modules re-scoped** (Classification → pure router; Gangs → contraband economy, not
+mood) and the reintegration module **re-founded on our substrate** (see next). What remains is
+Institution's uncontested core: hidden-contraband + search, propensity across *all* pawns, Ward, Foul
+Play, classification-as-router, and the standout nobody touches — **policing free colonists**.
+
+#### Namesake correction (2026-07-15): institutionalization & recidivism ARE ours — on a different axis
+
+"Defer entirely" was an over-correction: in a suite named **Institution**, these are the namesake, and
+our substrate lets us build them on an axis PR structurally cannot, so it is complementary, not a
+rebuild. The rule: **don't duplicate PR's mechanic; own the substrate-native version only we can.**
+
+- **Institutionalization → prisonization, and it is NOT a new system (2026-07-15).** The lean form:
+  `Propensity.Nurture` *already* raises criminal disposition for a badly-kept held pawn, dynamically.
+  The only thing incarceration adds is PERMANENCE — an effect that outlasts the sentence — and we
+  already have the field for it: `CriminalRecord.reform` (signed: harsh regime → negative/prisonized →
+  propensity up; rehabilitative → positive/reformed → propensity down). So prisonization = have the
+  EXISTING Nurture read that ONE existing field, which Discipline/Parole write. No parallel mechanic,
+  no new stat. And we do **not** patch PR's institutionalization (that would make us depend on a
+  one-week-old, fast-moving mod): when PR is present we *soft-read* its hediff as one more Nurture
+  input (`MayRequire`, reflective, no patch) — the same additive-not-override posture as the tunnel.
+- **Recidivism → the reintegrated who STAY (not the departed who leave).** PR returns released/escaped
+  pawns as allies-or-raiders. We own the mirror population: a paroled pawn who *joins the colony*
+  carries their `CriminalRecord` + residual propensity and can **reoffend inside your own walls** —
+  wiring gap D, closing the colonist-crime cycle. PR handles who left; we handle who stayed. No overlap.
+
+These two are also the **self-complete payoffs** for Discipline and Parole (per the "defer the depth,
+never the payoff" constraint above): the regime you run visibly reshapes people, and a badly-reformed
+parolee bites you later — both work with PR absent, and PR's departed-raider return deepens it when present.
 
 ### Prior-art sweeps done (2026-07-14/15)